Where does the COVID-19 conspiracy movement go from here?
As people move on from COVID-19, their movement will have to find ways to adapt
The "anti-lockdown" COVID-19 conspiracy movement may have reached an impasse. While it had some of its largest rallies in Canada yet with the second "World Wide Rally" (and a third one is planned for late July), it will have difficulties trying to advance as more people are vaccinated and COVID-19 measures are dropped.
This does not mean their movement will completely die out. They are finding ways to adapt to the vaccinated future. And even those who may lose interest in COVID-19 conspiracy theories have consumed a large volume of conspiracist media that will influence their worldview moving into the future.
I see a couple different routes emerging that adherents of the COVID-19 conspiracy movement are going down. First, the belief that vaccines will cause massive deaths within the near future may lead to the development of a new doomsday movement. Second, some will follow the “patriot’ movement into whatever their next focus may be. A third is more syncretic, being conspiracy theorist piggybacking of other social movements. These three possibilities are not mutually exclusive, some have already combined elements of each. I will go into a little detail about each.
Vaccine doomsday
A big fear anti-vaxxers are pushing is that millions of people in North America will die from vaccines in 2022. This has been stated by influential names such as Judy Mikovits and Sherri Tenpenny. Some may use earlier dates, expecting the die-offs to happen by fall or winter of this year, while others expect them to happen as late as up to five years from now. Whatever date they may choose, this shows the COVID-19 conspiracy movement can develop as a doomsday movement. Apocalyptic religions and believers involved in the movement may further complement this.
The fears of vaccines are not solely about the effects people may get from taking them. There are unfounded fears that the side-effects from vaccines will cause “viral shedding” or “spike proteins” that will spread to non-vaccinated people (especially through sexual partners) and cause sterility or other negative side effects. It has become common for adherents to blame their health problems on the vaccinated people around them.
These fears are enabling a new industry of snake oil preventative medicines and cures, the most popular of which has been pine needle tea and suramin. There has also been renewed interest in simple alternative “cures” for COVID-19, such as ivermectin as well as the classic hydroxychloroquine. Where there is money to be made off of these, we can expect the COVID-19 conspiracy movement will continue to push its doomsday fears.
Fears of vaccinated people and doomsday could also push anti-vaxxers to develop parallel societies. On Telegram, several regional groups have been made to help non-vaccinated people remain employed. Prepper and survivalist tendencies have popped up at points in the anti-lockdown movement. A widely-surfaced fraudulent leak claims food shortages will result from a never-ending lockdown. Proponents of intentional communities, such as the agorist Freedom Cells Network or Sovereign Citizen Dean Clifford’s “Earth Stewardship Cooperative,” have also had some presence and advocates, although they may just remain in the stage of brainstorming and fantasies.
Along with doomsday, there is also desire for revenge or retribution against all those involved in the “scamdemic.” Calls for a “new Nuremberg trials” have only grown angrier as they see families lining up with their children to get vaccinated. Some quack lawyers and activists around the world have made big promises hoping they can get such trials to happen, which have Canadian supporters. Other constitutional challenges that Canadian anti-lockdown activists hope will undermine all restrictions are standing, including the ones Rocco Galati is doing. Adam Skelly may pursue his own challenge further in spite of his recent setback. Pseudolegal Sovereign Citizen approaches like those advocated by Christopher James are also still being pursued.
This represents the most anti-system / anti-government path of the COVID-19 conspiracy movement.
Funneled towards the old far-right
There is also a chance that the old “patriot” movement may pick up again with the decline of COVID-19 conspiracy movement. Presently, the “patriot” movement has been too absorbed into the COVID-19 conspiracy movement to really focus on their traditional hatreds that got them active, with some exceptions. These patriot activists have been very active producing COVID-19 content, gaining new audiences from the pandemic. Much of this content is couched in with their “anti-globalist” conspiracy theories about migration, sustainable development, climate change and UNDRIP. Some examples include Mark Friesen, Kevin J. Johnston, Pat King, and Laura Lynn Tyler Thompson, as well as newer figures. It is not a big stretch to go from conspiracy theories about the World Economic Forum and World Health Organization working to undermine Canadian sovereignty to these.
Some of this shift can already be seen. Vancouver conspiracy activists had already dragged people to an anti-trans rally, where they pushed transphobic conspiracy theories. It would also not seem coincidental that outsider conservative politicians such as Derek Sloan, Randy Hillier, and Maxime Bernier have been getting more active at anti-lockdown protests this year either. Some anti-lockdown activists have already announced their intentions to run as candidates for the PPC or as independents.
The patriot movement may go through some adaptations of its own. Traditionally Islamophobia has been a main focus, but recent partisan focus on China, trying to blame it for the pandemic, may shift them towards a more Sinophobic direction. Absurd comparisons to China’s social credit system are now routine among the patriot movement, and a belief that China is some kind of model society for the New World Order to make other countries resemble (“Chinada”). These are not reasonable criticisms. Renewed interest in the lab leak theory, regardless of the evidence, has also been used to further complement this Sinophobia and attack mainstream media and institutions.
Entryism
Another direction that we have already seen is attempts at entryism into other social movements. Not all of the COVID-19 conspiracy movement may necessarily be inclined towards the right. We’ve seen some (especially in Toronto) try to get involved in pro-Palestine rallies, anti-eviction campaigns, and justice for victims of residential schools. While doing this they bring elements of their own conspiracist worldview including beliefs in Satanic child traffickers, Zionist global governance, and more. These attempts at entryism are not new and have been attempted since the beginnings of their movement. Movements that do not recognize these efforts and allow it to fester will suffer.
A global perspective and other considerations
A final point to consider on how the COVID-19 conspiracy movement will continue is that while COVID-19 is fading in wealthy countries, that is not necessarily the case for the rest of the world, which do not have the privilege of easy access to vaccines. Brazil and India, large countries under right-wing governments, stand out as examples where incompetent COVID-19 management has provided an endless amount of excuses and attempts to minimize the pandemic to their populace.
COVID-19 conspiracy theorists will be following news in these and other countries closely, trying to push their own narratives, that may be recirculated among partisans in those countries and vice-versa.
This is not even getting into the Delta and other variants, which they believe are a hoax used to make lockdowns permanent, or blame vaccinated people for.